December Washington D.C. Policy Update

QUICK FIX

The shutdown showdown is likely to be delayed for a week or two as Washington mourns the death of former President George H.W. Bush. The U.S.-China trade war is also on hold as the countries spend the next three months at the negotiating table. On Capitol Hill, lawmakers, lobbyists and advocacy groups are scrambling to secure their priorities as the 115th Congress draws to a close.

- Funding fight: A short-term continuing resolution will buy lawmakers more time to strike a deal that appeases enough Democrats to make it out of the Capitol but also stands a chance at getting President Donald Trump's signature. But as long as the president insists on $5 billion for his border wall and Democrats remain unwilling to give more than $1.6 billion, a deal will continue to elude them

- Trade war detente: Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping wrapped up a crucial meeting on the future of U.S.-China trade relations, agreeing to 90 days of talks to try to resolve longstanding issues. As part of the agreement, Trump said he'd hold off on a tariff increase planned for Jan. 1, and China agreed to buy an unspecified amount of U.S. products

- Fed faceoff: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates when it meets Dec. 18-19, but what the central bank says about its plans for next year will get most of the attention. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been under sustained attack from Trump over the rate hikes. Powell will also testify before Congress on Dec. 5, giving him a chance to explain his remarks from late November, which investors took as a signal that the Fed would soon pause the rate increases.

Here's a deeper dive on the month's policy agenda:

BUDGET & APPROPRIATIONS

A yearly tradition: It wouldn't be December without a spending deadline. While Congress has already cleared five of its annual funding bills, inaction on the remaining seven could trigger a partial government shutdown in the last days of the GOP's total control on Capitol Hill.

On the chopping block is funding for the departments of Transportation, Justice, Homeland Security, Commerce, State, Agriculture, Interior, and Housing and Urban Development, plus agencies such as the IRS and EPA.

Some senior lawmakers, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, suggest providing full-year funding at updated levels for six of the unfinished bills, while extending spending for the Department of Homeland Security through a continuing resolution. Others have floated the idea of a continuing resolution through the end of the fiscal year for all remaining bills

Additionally, leaders from both parties are pitching a December emergency aid bill to help communities recover from recent storms and wildfires - making it harder for lawmakers and Trump to oppose any measure staving off a shutdown, no matter their discontent with negotiations. - Jennifer Scholtes

AGRICULTURE

Farm bill finish line: The delayed farm bill, H.R. 2, is finally on its way after months of talks. The sweeping five-year food and farm law expired Oct. 1 without a replacement ready because of major disagreements between the House and the Senate. The bipartisan deal reached at the end of November doesn't include stricter work requirements for millions of food-stamp recipients as House Republicans had wanted. Trump had backed that proposal, and it was the highest-profile policy disagreement between the two chambers. The administration also again had pushed for changes to the forestry section after deadly wildfires in California, but those provisions didn't make it into the deal, either.

Lawmakers and their staffs are racing to draft legislative text and finalize cost estimates for the bill. If they can't get the measure to the president's desk before the end of the session, a new Congress will have to start from scratch. - Helena Bottemiller Evich and Ryan McCrimmon

TAX

Never say never: Despite pessimism about the fate of the House Republican tax package , Congress could move some tax legislation before closing up shop for the year. Some bets are on the extension of about two dozen expired tax incentives. Others think IRS reforms could make it through. Retirement savings sweeteners are also a possibility. "I think there's a chance for a small portion of the bill to pass," Cathy Koch, a former top tax staffer on the Hill, said at a recent Tax Policy Center forum.

Tax committee changes: With Democrats poised to take over the House next year, there will be plenty of jockeying for the numerous open seats on the Ways and Means Committee from freshman and veteran House Democrats alike. The Senate Finance Committee will see some transitions next year, too, after Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) and Dean Heller (R-Nev.) were defeated in midterm elections.

At the IRS: You can expect the agency and the Treasury Department to roll out more regulations on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, H.R. 1 (115). Proposed rules for a new minimum tax on multinational corporations, the Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax, have been at the Office of Management and Budget for review since early November. That's normally the last step before release.

The agency may also start gearing up for the 2018 tax season. Some watchdogs and a Treasury employee union have raised concerns that the start of the season could be delayed because of uncertainty over how to handle some provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The IRS has countered that it is well positioned for filing season. It hasn't announced an official start date yet. Last year it was Jan. 29. - Toby Eckert

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Another CFPB bout: The Senate will vote this week to confirm Kathy Kraninger to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, but not without a fight. Democrats, who have fought the Trump administration's efforts to rein in the bureau, have been critical of the nomination of the White House budget official, who has no experience in banking or consumers issues. "I can't think of a professional reason that she's qualified for this job," Sherrod Brown, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, said of Kraninger - his former intern. Democrats have also tried to tie her to other administration controversies, including the family separation policy along the Mexico border.

Last gasp for bipartisan bill: A bipartisan bill that would ease rules for companies looking to raise capital is one of the biggest items on lobbyists' year-end wish-lists. The House passed it in July with broad support, following negotiations between Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and ranking member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.). But Senate leaders have shown no urgency to take up the bill, S. 488, and the window for action is a narrowing.

New boss in town: The White House is expected to announce its nominee to be the next director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two companies that dominate the mortgage financing industry. With Director Mel Watt's term expiring in early January, the new director will be at the center of a fight over what to do with Fannie and Freddie after 10 years of government control. Meanwhile, top Fannie and Freddie executives go before the Senate Banking Committee on Dec. 5 for an oversight hearing, amid criticism that the mortgage giants are expanding their footprint despite government control. - Mark McQuillan

ENERGY

Putting up a fight: Bernard McNamee's nomination to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is expected to get a Senate vote this week, with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell setting the chamber up for a contentious debate. Opposition to the Energy Department official who wrote a Trump administration proposal to prop up struggling coal and nuclear power plants has grown in recent weeks after a video emerged of him blasting renewable energy and praising fossil fuels at a conservative Texas think tank. Environmental activists - who have been pressing FERC to bring climate change into its decisions and to make more room on the grid for more renewables - are preparing for a battle against McNamee. - Matt Daily

DATAPOINT

The hundred-billion-dollar question: The Fourth National Climate Assessment foresees hundreds of billions of dollars in annual damage to the economy by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are quickly and significantly reduced. The assessment claims that climate is changing much faster than it would from any natural variation, with overwhelming evidence pointing to human activities as the cause. Trump rejected his administration's own assessment. "I don't believe it," he said. "No, no, I don't believe it." - Patterson Clark

December CEO Report

The American Feed Industry Association subscribes to Politico's ProAg news feed. As a subscriber, AFIA receives and can share Politico's monthly "CEO Report," which reviews policy issues for the coming month. Below is the December 2018 report. We encourage you to share this within your company.

If you have any questions or feedback on this newsletter, please feel free to contact me at (703) 558-3566 or jstewart@afia.org.

Warm regards,

John Stewart

AFIA's Manager of Government Affairs

Welcome to the December edition of the CEO Report, POLITICO Pro's high-level outlook on the policy issues driving the month ... and beyond.

QUICK FIX

The shutdown showdown is likely to be delayed for a week or two as Washington mourns the death of former President George H.W. Bush. The U.S.-China trade war is also on hold as the countries spend the next three months at the negotiating table. On Capitol Hill, lawmakers, lobbyists and advocacy groups are scrambling to secure their priorities as the 115th Congress draws to a close.

- Funding fight: A short-term continuing resolution will buy lawmakers more time to strike a deal that appeases enough Democrats to make it out of the Capitol but also stands a chance at getting President Donald Trump's signature. But as long as the president insists on $5 billion for his border wall and Democrats remain unwilling to give more than $1.6 billion, a deal will continue to elude them

- Trade war detente: Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping wrapped up a crucial meeting on the future of U.S.-China trade relations, agreeing to 90 days of talks to try to resolve longstanding issues. As part of the agreement, Trump said he'd hold off on a tariff increase planned for Jan. 1, and China agreed to buy an unspecified amount of U.S. products

- Fed faceoff: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates when it meets Dec. 18-19, but what the central bank says about its plans for next year will get most of the attention. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been under sustained attack from Trump over the rate hikes. Powell will also testify before Congress on Dec. 5, giving him a chance to explain his remarks from late November, which investors took as a signal that the Fed would soon pause the rate increases.

Here's a deeper dive on the month's policy agenda:

BUDGET & APPROPRIATIONS

A yearly tradition: It wouldn't be December without a spending deadline. While Congress has already cleared five of its annual funding bills, inaction on the remaining seven could trigger a partial government shutdown in the last days of the GOP's total control on Capitol Hill.

On the chopping block is funding for the departments of Transportation, Justice, Homeland Security, Commerce, State, Agriculture, Interior, and Housing and Urban Development, plus agencies such as the IRS and EPA.

Some senior lawmakers, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, suggest providing full-year funding at updated levels for six of the unfinished bills, while extending spending for the Department of Homeland Security through a continuing resolution. Others have floated the idea of a continuing resolution through the end of the fiscal year for all remaining bills

Additionally, leaders from both parties are pitching a December emergency aid bill to help communities recover from recent storms and wildfires - making it harder for lawmakers and Trump to oppose any measure staving off a shutdown, no matter their discontent with negotiations. - Jennifer Scholtes

AGRICULTURE

Farm bill finish line: The delayed farm bill, H.R. 2, is finally on its way after months of talks. The sweeping five-year food and farm law expired Oct. 1 without a replacement ready because of major disagreements between the House and the Senate. The bipartisan deal reached at the end of November doesn't include stricter work requirements for millions of food-stamp recipients as House Republicans had wanted. Trump had backed that proposal, and it was the highest-profile policy disagreement between the two chambers. The administration also again had pushed for changes to the forestry section after deadly wildfires in California, but those provisions didn't make it into the deal, either.

Lawmakers and their staffs are racing to draft legislative text and finalize cost estimates for the bill. If they can't get the measure to the president's desk before the end of the session, a new Congress will have to start from scratch. - Helena Bottemiller Evich and Ryan McCrimmon

TAX

Never say never: Despite pessimism about the fate of the House Republican tax package , Congress could move some tax legislation before closing up shop for the year. Some bets are on the extension of about two dozen expired tax incentives. Others think IRS reforms could make it through. Retirement savings sweeteners are also a possibility. "I think there's a chance for a small portion of the bill to pass," Cathy Koch, a former top tax staffer on the Hill, said at a recent Tax Policy Center forum.

Tax committee changes: With Democrats poised to take over the House next year, there will be plenty of jockeying for the numerous open seats on the Ways and Means Committee from freshman and veteran House Democrats alike. The Senate Finance Committee will see some transitions next year, too, after Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) and Dean Heller (R-Nev.) were defeated in midterm elections.

At the IRS: You can expect the agency and the Treasury Department to roll out more regulations on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, H.R. 1 (115). Proposed rules for a new minimum tax on multinational corporations, the Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax, have been at the Office of Management and Budget for review since early November. That's normally the last step before release.

The agency may also start gearing up for the 2018 tax season. Some watchdogs and a Treasury employee union have raised concerns that the start of the season could be delayed because of uncertainty over how to handle some provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The IRS has countered that it is well positioned for filing season. It hasn't announced an official start date yet. Last year it was Jan. 29. - Toby Eckert

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Another CFPB bout: The Senate will vote this week to confirm Kathy Kraninger to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, but not without a fight. Democrats, who have fought the Trump administration's efforts to rein in the bureau, have been critical of the nomination of the White House budget official, who has no experience in banking or consumers issues. "I can't think of a professional reason that she's qualified for this job," Sherrod Brown, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, said of Kraninger - his former intern. Democrats have also tried to tie her to other administration controversies, including the family separation policy along the Mexico border.

Last gasp for bipartisan bill: A bipartisan bill that would ease rules for companies looking to raise capital is one of the biggest items on lobbyists' year-end wish-lists. The House passed it in July with broad support, following negotiations between Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and ranking member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.). But Senate leaders have shown no urgency to take up the bill, S. 488, and the window for action is a narrowing.

New boss in town: The White House is expected to announce its nominee to be the next director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two companies that dominate the mortgage financing industry. With Director Mel Watt's term expiring in early January, the new director will be at the center of a fight over what to do with Fannie and Freddie after 10 years of government control. Meanwhile, top Fannie and Freddie executives go before the Senate Banking Committee on Dec. 5 for an oversight hearing, amid criticism that the mortgage giants are expanding their footprint despite government control. - Mark McQuillan

ENERGY

Putting up a fight: Bernard McNamee's nomination to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is expected to get a Senate vote this week, with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell setting the chamber up for a contentious debate. Opposition to the Energy Department official who wrote a Trump administration proposal to prop up struggling coal and nuclear power plants has grown in recent weeks after a video emerged of him blasting renewable energy and praising fossil fuels at a conservative Texas think tank. Environmental activists - who have been pressing FERC to bring climate change into its decisions and to make more room on the grid for more renewables - are preparing for a battle against McNamee. - Matt Daily

DATAPOINT

The hundred-billion-dollar question: The Fourth National Climate Assessment foresees hundreds of billions of dollars in annual damage to the economy by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are quickly and significantly reduced. The assessment claims that climate is changing much faster than it would from any natural variation, with overwhelming evidence pointing to human activities as the cause. Trump rejected his administration's own assessment. "I don't believe it," he said. "No, no, I don't believe it." - Patterson Clark

View the full DataPoint graphic here. Want to add DataPoint to your Pro account? Learn more.

TECHNOLOGY

It's in the mail: Amazon may end the year with an unwelcome surprise from Washington, a month after announcing neighboring Crystal City, Va., will be home to one of two satellite headquarters. The Trump administration months ago pledged it would release a report outlining proposals to reform the U.S. Postal Service by the end of the year. The president has not been shy about framing the report as a way to target Amazon, which he argues takes advantage of the postal system by negotiating low bulk shipping rates. "I think they're getting the bargain of the century; I think that's why I've asked for a review," he told the Daily Caller last month.

Amazon watchers are now waiting to find out if the task force led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin delivers the report by year's end. If it does and recommends rate hikes for major shippers, it could amount to a long-term drag on the bottom line of not just Amazon, but also other e-commerce players. Milder recommendations would come as a relief to online sellers and vindicate their claims that they're paying fair rates that make up for discounts with volume - and that the financially strapped postal service's real problems lie elsewhere. - Kyle Daly

EDUCATION

Safety report card: The Education Department has said a long-awaited Federal Commission on School Safety report is expected to be released by the end of the year. The commission, which was chaired by Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, was created by the White House following the deadly Feb. 14 school shooting in Parkland, Fla. Trump asked the commission to consider issues such as age restrictions for certain firearms purchases, best practices for school buildings and campus security, and whether to repeal Obama-era school discipline guidelines.

Title IX fight continues: A flood of comments is expected on the Education Department's controversial proposal to overhaul how schools - both K-12 and college campuses - handle sexual harassment and assault allegations under Title IX. The 60-day comment period opened Nov. 29. The proposal would allow for victims to be cross-examined, raises the standard of proof in such cases and let schools offer mediation. The Trump administration has said the rules are aimed at ensuring safety for all students and providing a fair system for both victims and the accused. Civil liberties groups and conservatives support the proposal, but it's received fierce pushback from congressional Democrats and women's groups. - Kimberly Hefling

TRADE

Japan, EU talks on deck: The last month of the year will feature hearings on trade deals the U.S. wants to negotiate next year with Japan and the European Union. The U.S. Trade Representative's office will hold a Dec. 10 hearing on negotiating objectives for a possible U.S.-Japan deal. The U.S. International Trade Commission, at USTR's request, will also hold a Dec. 6 hearing as part of an investigation into the elimination of tariffs on imports from Japan.

The same hearings will be held before the talks with the EU, with a Dec. 14 USTR hearing on negotiating objectives and a Dec. 18 USITC hearing as part of its investigation on tariff effects.

Next steps on NAFTA: Keep an eye on Capitol Hill as the ratification battle over the new North American trade pact gains momentum toward an expected vote next year. Some Democrats have already come out opposing the deal. Trump is again threatening to withdraw from the old deal to force Congress' hand.

Written comments on the replacement for NAFTA, now called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, will be due to the ITC on Dec. 20. The comments will be used to help the commission do an independent economic analysis of the new trade pact for Congress and others, as required under Trade Promotion Authority law.

Off limits: The Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Technology has set a Dec. 19 deadline to provide input for a proposed rule for identifying a list of critical and emerging technology that should be subject to export restrictions.

Pacific trade time: On Dec. 31, the former Trans-Pacific Partnership, now renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, will take effect. It will ease tariffs among the 11 countries - including Japan, Canada and Mexico - that stayed in the deal after the Trump administration withdrew the United States from the pact. - Adam Behsudi

Canada

G-7 talk AI: G-7 countries gather in Montreal for a meeting on artificial intelligence on Dec 6. For host country Canada, ethics issues are the top priority: how to allow human oversight of automated policymaking tools and how to ensure algorithms don't wind up discriminating against economically and socially vulnerable groups. It's a shared priority for some other G-7 countries, notably France. The White House says it will send officials from five agencies and departments to the event, but its top priorities for this meeting are economic issues - research-and-development and driving innovation. That doesn't mean the U.S. isn't exploring the societal questions: The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency lists algorithmic explainability as one of the goals of a $2 billion program; New York City is preparing a municipal policy and some of the discussions at the G-7 will be based on proposals made by U.S. researchers. - Alexander Panetta

HEALTH CARE

RX expiration date: Plans to use the lame-duck session of Congress to resolve lingering health policy fights are fading. The wariness may spell doom for efforts to repeal a trio of Obamacare taxes and revise a February budget agreement that left the drug industry paying a greater share of costs for seniors in Medicare's coverage gap. Narrower bills addressing over-the-counter drug regulation and public health preparedness for pandemics could also die.

Aides and lawmakers believe adding contentious health policy "riders" to must-pass legislation during the year-end crunch will prompt demands for other concessions and lead to gridlock. If the House and Senate hold off, it would mark an unusually peaceful end to a Congress that has been defined by bitter clashes over issues like Obamacare and Medicaid.

But some have yet to rule out significant health industry requests. A number of prominent Republicans want to revise the budget deal that changed Medicare payment policies and left the pharmaceutical industry on the hook for $11.8 billion more in patient costs over a decade. Drugmakers are pressing hard, aware they'll lose key allies like Speaker Paul Ryan next year, when Democrats take control of the House. - Adriel Bettelheim

TRANSPORTATION

Drone for the holidays: The FAA is in the home stretch of finalizing a rule that would allow drones to be operated commercially over people. At present, outfits that want to fly a drone over crowds have to apply for a waiver of the restriction against it. The rule's release has been due for some time, and could arrive any time in the few days remaining this year.

Safety mandate clock ticks down: At the stroke of midnight on Dec. 31, passenger trains and rail tracks that hosts passenger trains must be equipped with an anti-collision technology known as positive train control. This step is intended to counter risks from operator fatigue and distraction. Every railroad that must be in compliance with this mandate is signaling that they plan to either have the technology installed in time, or have made enough progress to apply for an additional two years to comply with the mandate. But some commuter lines - especially New Jersey Transit - are still at risk of not quite making enough progress by the end of the year, which could prompt fines from the Federal Railroad Administration. - Kathryn A. Wolfe

CYBERSECURITY

Holiday hackers: According to the cybersecurity firm Carbon Black, December will likely see an uptick in cyberattacks on businesses. It found that organizations around the world encountered a nearly 60 percent jump in digital attacks during the 2017 holiday season. "During the holiday season, there is often a ton of noise in the online world and attackers do everything they can to take advantage of that," the firm said. "This applies not only to consumers who shop online, but also to businesses as well, many of which are understaffed and, in the case of retailers, approaching the busiest time of the year."

Beat back botnets: Speaking of holiday gifts, the growing popularity of internet-connected devices - many sold with little or no cybersecurity protection - gives hackers ever-expanding opportunities to execute botnet attacks. Botnets are massive networks of compromised devices - computers, webcams, smart appliances and digital recorders - that malicious hackers can use to shut down websites, send out ransomware en masse or even deploy social media disinformation campaigns.

The Council to Secure the Digital Economy, a group of telecom and tech companies, issued a comprehensive guide for what businesses can do to fend off botnet attacks. It includes basic security precautions, such as changing default passwords, as well as more sophisticated steps, such as consulting threat intelligence contractors for cybersecurity developments and updates. The report is the latest of several industry and government efforts - including this report from the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Commerce - to thwart the growth of botnets. - Mike Farrell

DEFENSE

Defense hawks are circling: Battle lines have been drawn on the defense budget. The president has called for a lower $700 billion fiscal 2020 national defense budget to counter the mounting budget deficit, while Senate Armed Services Chairman Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) wants the Pentagon's original plan for $733 billion used as a "floor" for the coming year.

Inhofe has seized on a recent review of Trump's defense strategy that contends U.S. military superiority has eroded to a dangerous degree and more money is needed to catch up. Resurgent House Democrats, though, are poised to comb the massive Pentagon budget with the aim of rooting out waste and slowing some key weapons programs, like the administration's planned overhaul of the nuclear weapons arsenal.

Troops out of the shutdown crosshairs: Lawmakers are staring down a partial government shutdown, but veterans and military service members are largely out of the crossfire. Annual Pentagon funding was enacted before the start of the current fiscal year on Oct. 1 for the first time in a decade.

Still, a partial shutdown could curtail some programs and agencies with national security missions, including State Department staffing at overseas embassies and consulates and some Coast Guard operations in the Department of Homeland Security. - Connor O'Brien

EMPLOYMENT & IMMIGRATION

Pension play?: Don't expect a solution this month to the multiemployer pension crisis. The congressional "supercommittee" tasked with shoring up insolvent multiemployer pension plans - pensions that unions negotiated with multiple employers - blew its Nov. 30 deadline to agree to recommendations. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) said last week that if the panel didn't produce, then the Senate HELP Committee, which he chairs, will have to address it in the next Congress.

But absent a congressional solution, the collapse of a large multiemployer plan like the Teamsters' Central States Pension Fund or the United Mine Workers of America's Health and Retirement Funds will bankrupt their insurer, the federally chartered Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation.

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation is still run by W. Thomas Reeder, an appointee of President Barack Obama, as the nominee to replace him, Gordon Hartogensis, has not yet been confirmed. Having cleared the final committee hurdle on Nov. 29, Hartogensis' nomination only needs McConnell - his brother-in-law - to schedule a floor vote. If he's not confirmed by the end of this session, Hartogensis will have to start the process all over again in the new Congress, leaving management of the multiemployer mess to Reeder. - Rebecca Rainey

EHEALTH

High noon for data rules: Time runs out this month on three HHS rules to promote data sharing in health care. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service's rule may require health plans to allow patients to see claims data and could make data sharing a requirement for participation in Medicare. A second rule, from the Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT , will define legally acceptable ways that health systems can restrict the free flow of health information and to clarify how quickly health systems will have to adopt uniform standards for app makers and health systems to extract information from electronic health records. ONC also has been working on a final Trusted Exchange Framework and Common Agreement, which provides general principles for health information exchange. - Arthur Allen

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