— Tariff truce: The U.S. and China will resume trade talks after a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 Leaders' Summit in Osaka, Japan. Trump agreed to hold off on raising tariffs on additional Chinese goods, while China agreed to buy U.S. farms products. Trump also said he would loosen his administration's trade ban on Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei. The two sides didn't put a shot clock on negotiations.
— Immigration talks with Mexico press on: The U.S. and Mexico will reach a self-imposed July 15 deadline to demonstrate progress on Mexico's measures to stem the flow of Central American migrants to the U.S. The two sides made a deal on immigration enforcement in early June, but a side agreement — not initially disclosed by either party — said the two countries would circle back in 45 days to gauge progress. If the measures were deemed insufficient by the U.S., the countries would open talks about a "safe third country" or regional asylum deal. Preliminary U.S. border figures obtained by POLITICO showed a decline in arrests over a week-long period in mid-June — but whether the numbers will have fallen enough to satisfy Trump remains to be seen.
— Partisan split on must-pass defense authorization: The House will begin consideration of its annual defense policy bill — and likely hundreds of amendments — when it returns from its Fourth of July recess. Republicans are unlikely to support the new National Defense Authorization Act, H.R. 2500 (116). Defense hawks have slammed it for its lower $733 billion budget topline, limits on low-yield nuclear weapons and loosening of terrorist detainee policy, among other things. Among other contentious proposals, Democrats and Republicans have teed up an amendment to prohibit military action against Iran without congressional approval amid heightened tensions in the Middle East.
Clock ticking on USMCA: It will be a race against the clock for the Trump administration and congressional Republicans to try to pass the new USMCA trade deal before the end of the month. After members get back from their July Fourth recess, they'll have only 12 joint-session working days left before Congress takes its five-week summer break.
Democrats have formed USMCA working groups to break down problems they have with the deal as written. Those lawmakers will be working with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to try to reach a compromise on the four major outstanding issues: labor provisions, environmental standards, access to medicines and enforcement.
Lawmakers have said they expect to meet with Lighthizer at least weekly. The Trump administration could send its implementing legislation to Capitol Hill to try to force the issue, but it will be up to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to decide when to take up a vote. Pelosi said last week that Democrats could opt to demand the pact be reopened to address enforcement concerns.
Tariff tension: Companies hoping to get exclusions from duties on $200 billion in Chinese imports that Trump hiked from 10 percent to 25 percent in May could find out this month whether their requests were granted. — Megan Cassella
BUDGET & APPROPRIATIONS
Race to avert shutdown: Congress has just three months left to finish up fiscal 2020 funding bills before money runs dry on Oct. 1. And no matter how quickly spending leaders are able to tick through the 12 annual funding measures, none of that action will matter if a broader budget deal doesn't get done.
Once lawmakers return from recess on July 9, those talks could continue with top White House officials. But leaders on both sides of the aisle are already preparing for the likelihood of another stopgap spending bill that drags out current funding levels, especially since Trump's top fiscal advisers just floated that idea in their most recent meeting on the issue.
Without an agreement on overall caps for defense and non-defense spending, Senate appropriators could follow the lead of their House counterparts in starting to pick tentative limits this month so they can start the process of writing fiscal 2020 bills.
On the House side, the chamber passed 10 of its 12 annual spending bills in June, leaving only the Legislative Branch, H.R. 2779 (116), and Homeland Security measures untouched. It is unclear, however, whether House Democrats will want to wade this month into the contentious issues that snagged those bills last month or whether they will hold off on passage until after a budget deal is struck. — Jennifer Scholtes
EMPLOYMENT & IMMIGRATION
Asylum changes coming: The end of July will bring a deadline for the Department of Homeland Security secretary and attorney general to show they've taken steps to implement a number of policies to toughen the asylum process. Trump issued a memo in April that gave the departments 90 days, until July 29, to "take all appropriate actions" to adopt several asylum policies, including adding a fee to asylum applications. — Ted Hesson
Powell's month in the spotlight: July will be packed with events for the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to face Congress for his semiannual testimony and Fed policymakers meeting to decide whether to cut interest rates. When Powell goes before the House Financial Services Committee on July 10 and the Senate Banking Committee the next day, he'll be grilled by lawmakers over the central bank's rate plans as well as the increasingly aggressive criticism he's getting from the president. Trump has been haranguing Powell for months to slash rates, an unprecedented display of public pressure on the central bank. Policymakers meet on July 30-31 to determine whether economic conditions are weakening enough to warrant lower rates as insurance against a more rapid economic slowdown.
Facebook returns to Congress: The social media giant will be the subject of back-to-back Senate Banking and House Financial Services hearings on July 16 and 17 focused on its "Libra" digital currency project announced last month. House Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters has called on the company to halt its foray into finance until policymakers can vet the project. The Facebook executive overseeing Libra is expected to testify.
Bank merger review: Waters will lead another hearing July 24 on the proposed merger of lenders BB&T and SunTrust. The California lawmaker and other Democrats have been critical of the deal, which would create the nation's sixth-largest retail bank, and Waters has asked regulators to hold off on approving it until her committee has had a chance to review it.
Next steps on housing finance overhaul: Treasury is expected to release a highly anticipated plan to overhaul the nation's housing finance system any da